Confirmed - No world cup.

Sadly Wales lost again to Austria in the second half of the double header. This time it was "only" 1-0 to Austria, but it doesn't really matter. The sad truth is that there are only 4 games left to play, which would give us a grand total of 14 points assuming we win them all, but second place Poland already have 15, and only the top two teams go through to the finals. The only chance we've got now is if they and/or England get disqualified. We can only hope.

No world cup for us

Today we lost 2-0 to Austria in the World Cup Qualifiers. Short of some amazing results in the remaining games then we will not be going to the 2006 world cup finals. What depresses me most is that a few games back Wales were doing rather well, we even beat Italy - ah the memory of that game has just made me smile. Pause for more smiling. ... ... ... ... ... ... You know we might just do it yet.

Evolution is like an operational amplifier

As promised, one of my random muses.

I find evolution a fascinating subject. What drives it, why things end up the way they do, why we have species and so on. The nice thing about this is that no one really has much of a clue as to what's really going on, so that means that my guesses are as good as anyone else's.

An evolutionary theory that I have thought up is that the observed rate of evolution is an artefact of the effect of negative feed back on a much, much, higher rate of change.

There is undoubtedly a negative feed back in operation in evolution. The fact that those less fit than others are less likely to breed is tantamount to that. If say X represents the collection of inheritable characteristics (IC), which includes the genome but also includes other parent to offspring information transfers. And say an offspring's IC = X + dx, where dx is some change on X. Then if X is the best fit for an environment, those offspring with a minimal dx will outperform those with a higher dx.
Now generation 2 will therefore be X + dx + dx2 and the closer | dx + dx2 | is to 0, the fitter a G2 offspring will be to the ideal X. Hence there is a continuous pressure to return the IC to X. This is exactly what happens in a negative feedback system, where perturbation form some ideal are feed back into the system to restore it back to the ideal.

However, because there are many factors that affect survivability, there is no one ideal state, these states can be thought of as peaks of a mountain range. Each peak represents the best local ideal for a particular combination of feedback paths. Each peak can be thought of as a different species. Also, because of the competition from other species and environmental changes, these ideal states are continuously changing. Just as mountains raise and fall in response to the effects of continental drift and erosion.

One type of feedback system that I studied while at university is one that is based on the operation amplifier. In such a system an amplifier with huge and unstable gain can be modified by the addition of feedback that massively improves its stability, but also at the expense of drastically reducing its gain.

My inspiration has been to make the evolutionary driving process analogous to the amplifier, and the losses due to competitive pressure and the environment analogues to the feedback circuitry. As I will go on to discuss in later blogs, this approach explains all sorts of contradictory observations on the rate speciation and the differences in species diversity between different environments.

Who's responsible

Swindon has some of the worst road design in the country, but there is no excuses for the lastest brain fade that is the new scheme on Farringdon Road. Two lanes are now reduced to one, 100m after a set of traffic lights. The result, every boy racer and his uncle now races from the lights to the point where the two lanes become one. I sadly predict that this will result in a serious accident, which is ironic as I'm fairly sure the changes were made as a result of a fatal accident at the same place last year. Of course it could have all been avoided, all that was required was to block the left hand lane outside the swiming pool, and to make the left hand lane before the swimming pool left turn only. I'm going to write to my councilors and MP about this.

Annoyed,

Snowjest.

Daffodils

I wandered lonely as a daffodil, well ok I was on my way to work and walked in via the park. There are a lot of daffs there, and very pretty they looked in
the spring sunshine. I may take my camera in if its sunny tomorrow morning.

Didn't do a post yesterday because, well I was being bone idle. A fact not helped by the quantity of beer that I drank on Saturday night (in celbration of Wales' Grand Slam). Pity really because it was quite a nice day.

Looks like the general election is going to be in May. At the moment I'm edging toward the Tories, though I can't believe it. On the whole I like a lot of what Labour have done, but object to their sneakiness, particularly on Tax. Besides, I think that a third term for any party is unhealthy.

As for the Libs, not a chance, which is odd as I voted for them in the last two elections. But I disagree with their stance on the Gulf War and on ID cards.

Happiness is ...

Happiness is your first grand slam in nearly thirty years. I was 11 the last time it happened. 11. The only pisser is that I'm in England and not in Wales. Ha well. At least I'll be able to get to the bar at the pub tonight, something that I suspect is going to be difficult back home.

Well done boys. Wales salutes you all. You've done us proud.

- Snowjest

Has spring sprung ?

Today spring arrived. The sun shone from a cloudless sky and the air was mild. The buds on the trees are clearly swelling, and the daffodils and crocus are in full bloom. We even considered an alfresco Friday lunchtime drink, but its not yet that warm, besides the office girls were still in their winter ware. So whilst it was a nice day, I'm going to wait a while before I get the garden furniture out.

Amelie

I've Just seen the film Amelie, and wow what a film. To add to its sureal nature, when Amelie's love finally finds her, I hear on a radio, (one that I forgot to turn off), my all time favourite song. Blackbird by Sharon Shannon. Its only the second time I've heard it on the radio, the first time was the first time that I ever heard it, and then I liked it so much that I went out and bought it on CD. The wierdest part is that my life is scarily like Amelie's. So may be its a good sign, who knows, my love may be closer than I think! Sigh!

Budget Day

Today is budget day. As expected Mr Brown has given more of my money to those who don't need it, aka rich pensioners & sixth formers. Using the BBC's calculator I'll be £3.38 worse off per month, though apparently this is just in line with the cost of living. Lets hope I get at least a cost of living pay rise this year !!!

If the bbc's online poll is to be believed, then 2 out of 3 poeple didn't like the budget. I voted with the majority, although that was because I didn't think it was good, rather than because I thought that it was bad.

Its not going to win any labour votes, but probably won't lose any either. As for me, I'm still not sure who I'm going to vote for, except that it won't be the Liberals or BNP, both too extreme for my liking. Neither will I be voting for Mr Verytanned and his party. But as for the Tories, Labour & the greens. Dunno.

Oh, and by the way. Happy Birthday Dad.

First entry

Ok world, this is my first blog. I dunno what greats it will reach, but expect some ranting, some philosophy, and maybe even the odd joke. I'm mainly doing this because I want to change my life, move forward and out of the rut that I have slipped into. By writing things down, maybe I be able to exorcise my demons. Lets hope so.

So lets start with the basics. I'm a Welsh male, in my late thirties, living in Swindon in England. I write software for a living. My favourite winter pastime is skiing, hence my nom de plume of snowjest.

Being Welsh got a whole lot better on Sunday. For the first time in over twenty years our Rugby team are odds on favourites to not only win the Rugby Six nations tournament, but to do so with a grand slam. Massive! However, we must first beat the Irish, and since they are the only other team that can win the competition, they are going to be very tough opponents. Win or lose though, we beat the English, and we beat the French, so that has already made it a great season. :)


- Snowjest.